The New Iraq is the Old Iraq

Back in the day, when the Iraq post-war outcome was in question, one of the favorite claims made by my politically conservative brethren, (those who were the most invested in success of the post-war) was that a Iraqi democracy would bring a change to the political structure of the Middle East. A successful Iraqi democracy would put pressure on the other arabian countries to leave behind primitive beliefs and modernize - voila - end of conflicts in the Middle East. Never mind that somewhat real elections have been held for years in arabian countries, this rising tide lifts all boats argument was strongly advanced by President Bush as a way to end terrorism and conflict. This argument seemed reasonable, after all we went to war against Saddam basically because he was a squeaky cog in the islamo-fascist terrorist infrastructure.

Other great hopes of modernization included the now distant expectation that a democratic Iraq would normalize relations with Israel. It is well beyond any shadow of a doubt that this was all fantasy. Iraq is not becoming the great arabian democracy any more than it is becoming a friend of Israel. While the voices pontificating the fall of Iraq after US troops withdraw may be premature, what will certainly not change is the fact that Yishmael is still Yishmael.

Take for example two recent stories. Both represent a different focus, or pose of the "new" Iraq. One example is representative of the fact that Iraq is still a very islamic land. In the INN story below, we find that the Tomb of Yechezkel is slated to become a mosque. Democratic Iraq seems to have no tolerance of religious expression or history. Islam has no need to turn a Jewish shrine into a muslim one if it is recognized as a place of holiness already with the exception of wanting to erase all vestiges of the once large and proud Iraqi Jewry. How irrational this is? One day, the Iraqi government mouth piece may even deny Jews ever lived in Iraq.

The second story from Jpost is also outrageous. US ally PM al-Maliki has approved a plan to ask the UN to demand Israel pay for damages (financially) caused by the 1981 bombing of the Osirak nuclear reactor under construction at that time for Saddam Hussein (YmShm) by French nuclear engineers. At the time of the first Gulf War, then Defense Secretary Dick Cheney pointed out that the bombing by Israel made the US attack much simpler. Conceivably, a Saddam Hussein with nuclear weapons would have changed the balance of power in the region and possibly the world in very bad ways. (this is the best lesson in thinking about Iran with nuclear weapons). At the time of the bombing though, Israel was treated as a villain. The UN resolution al-Maliki is basing his claim on Security Council Resolution 487 according to the story below gives Iraq the opportunity to demand compensation. Of course, al-Maliki would not have been PM nor been involved in the government of Iraq had Saddam lived and had still been running the show there. What a strange way to say thanks for helping to bring democracy to Iraq. But this brings us back to the theme of the story - Irrational arabians doing irrational things. This is the new Iraq. This is the new and improved Iraq. This is the Iraq which carries the hope of arabian social revolution and modernization with it. This is the new Iraq which, if it holds together, could become a democratic and powerful force opposing Israel in the future.

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Iraq De-Judaizing Ezekiel's Tomb - by Hillel Fendel

(IsraelNN.com) Early reports that Iraq plans to retain the Jewish nature of the Tomb of the Prophet Ezekiel are apparently false. Sources in Baghdad say that the government plans to turn it into a mosque and erase all Jewish markings.

Iraq announced earlier this year that it would revamp the ancient burial site, which is located in Al-Kifl, a small town south of Baghdad. The U.S.-backed government announcement implied that its Jewish nature would continue to be emphasized.

Since then, however, reports have surfaced that the government is actually planning to build a mosque there, including removing the ancient Hebrew inscriptions that adorn the site. Some reports say that all or some of the lines of Hebrew script have already been erased.

Ezekiel (Yechezkel, in Hebrew), lived in the sixth century BCE, having accompanied the exiled Judeans to Babylon. His prophecies include the Vision of the Dry Bones, as well as the future return of Jewish People to the Land of Israel even if they are not deserving (Chapter 36: 22-25). Thousands of Jews often visited the site of his tomb annually before Iraqi Jewry came to an abrupt end in the middle of the 20th century, and Moslems and Christians continue to visit it even today.

Shelomo Alfassa, Director of Justice for Jews from Arab Countries, reports that Islamic political parties have pressured the government to remove the Jewish inscriptions. He quotes the Iraqi news agency Ur News as reporting that the writing and ornamentations “are being (or have been) removed… under the pretext of restoring the site.”

Alfassa quotes sources to the effect that Iraq’s Antiquities and Heritage Authority “has been pressured by Islamists to historically cleanse all evidence of a Jewish connection to Iraq - a land where Jews had lived for over a thousand years before the advent of Islam.”

Professor Investigates
Four months ago, a German-based Iraqi journalist tipped off the Association of Jewish Academics from Iraq in Israel (AJAII) that plans were afoot to build a mosque on the site of Ezekiel’s Tomb. AJAII asked Dr. Jabbar Jamal al-Din, a lecturer in Jewish Thought at Kufa University in Iraq, to investigate these reports – and he said that he believes them to be untrue.

Baghdad Sources: Room for Concern
Sources in Baghdad, however, feel otherwise. Prof. Shmuel Moreh - Israel Prize Laureate in Arabic Literature and Professor Emeritus at Hebrew University of Jerusalem - told Israel National News that he had received worrisome phone calls from non-Jewish friends in Baghdad. Prof. Moreh, who serves as the Chairman of the Association of Jewish Academics from Iraq, said that the plans are to turn the holy site into a mosque, and “some told me that they are taking off the Hebrew inscriptions.”

Alfassa provides the following translation of the relevant report in Ur News: “The officials of the Department of Antiquities and Heritage say that their restoration programme will continue until 2011 and is designed to carry out essential maintenance and prevent the dome and roof from collapsing. But their hidden purpose, sources say, is the removal of features that emphasize a historical connection with the Jews who built the shrine and lived in the city for hundreds of years after the Babylonian exile.”

Though well over 100,000 Jews lived in Iraq a few decades ago, this number has now been decimated to no more than eight, Prof. Moreh said. “There are others,” he added, “but they barely know that they are Jews; in many cases, their parents did not tell them.”

Alfassa concludes: “Iraq - the Biblical Mesopotamia -is almost as rich in Jewish history as the Land of Israel. The tomb of the prophet Ezekiel dates back to the Babylonian exile in the sixth century BCE. It was there in Iraq that Abraham discovered monotheism, and it is where the prophets Ezra, Nehemiah, Nahum, Jonah and Daniel are all buried.”

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'Israel must compensate Iraq for Osirak'- Jan. 5, 2010 JPost.com Staff - THE JERUSALEM POST

Iraq will demand that Israel pay compensation for bombing the unfinished nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981, an Iraqi member of parliament told the Iraqi al-Sabah newspaper in an article published on Tuesday.

Muhammad Naji Muhammad claimed that his government was planning to enlist the United Nation's help to pressure Israel into compensating Baghdad, according to a DPA report cited by Channel 10.

"Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Foreign Ministry turned to the UN and the Security Council demanding that Israel pay us reparations for damage caused to the reactor in 1981," Muhammad was quoted as telling the newspaper.

Baghdad is demanding that the UN establish a committee to assess the scope of the damage caused by the Israeli strike in order to calculate the appropriate compensation.

The Iraqi demand is based on UN Security Council Resolution 487, which was drafted following the bombing of the reactor in June 1981. The resolution harshly condemned Israel's aerial attack and determined that Iraq had a right to demand compensation over the damages.

Death by Tourism - Iraqi Justice

Iraq may execute MP for Israel visit - Sep. 22, 2008 AP and herb keinon , THE JERUSALEM POST

Ok. There are a few rules we need to understand about President Bush's new Iraq. The point is that just because the government may be freely elected it doesn't mean that:

1. The country or government will be Jew friendly


2. Just laws will be passed


3. Un-just laws will be overturned


4. All democratically elected states will have the same interests


5. Armed conflict is always avoidable between two states with democratically elected leaders

Having said all that, the world is certainly safer and Israel definitely safer after Saddam Hussein's rope burn swing. Iraq will determine its own future. For now, US security interests will benefit from the new Iraq. Such assurances may not, in the future bear fruit. I, for one, will not be a bit surprised, if Iraq survives as a state that one day, a stronger, democratically elected Iraqi government will take the lead in organizing another region effort to oppose the "Zionist Entity". Does that mean the war was a mistake? Heck no. It is just as likely that Iraq doesn't hold it together, breaks into sectarian conflict for an extended time and eventually ends up ruled by another dictator. Only time will tell whether that dictator is more Saddam Hussein or OBL.

As to the subject of the article, Israel should offer al-Alusi amnesty. There is after all a difference between free, democratic, and just. Much of the world misses this point.

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First his two sons were murdered. Now he faces prosecution. The reason for Mithal al-Alusi's troubles? Visiting Israel and advocating peace with the Jewish state - something Iraq's leaders refuse to consider.

The Iraqi is at the center of a political storm after his fellow lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to strip him of his immunity and allow his prosecution for visiting Israel - a crime punishable by death under a 1950s-era law. Such a fate is unlikely for al-Alusi, though he may lose his party's sole seat in parliament.

Because he had visited Israel, many Iraqis assume the maverick legislator was the real target of the assassins who killed his sons in 2005 while he escaped unharmed.

Now he is in trouble for again visiting Israel and attending a conference a week ago at the International Institute for Counterterrorism.

"He wasn't set to speak, but he was in the audience and conversed with a lecturer on a panel about insurgency and terrorism in Afghanistan, Iraq and Israel," said conference organizer Eitan Azani. "We didn't invite him. He came on his own initiative."

Al-Alusi has a German passport, allowing him to travel without visa restrictions imposed on other Iraqis. Lawmakers accused him of humiliating the nation with a trip to the "enemy" state.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor called the reaction to al-Arusi's visit "very distressing" and said it was sad this was the response to someone who merely visited Israel and was interested in a dialogue with it.

"It is very unfortunate that the reaction was so violent and aggressive," he said. "It adds nothing."

Palmor said Israel was appreciative of al-Alusi's "courage," and that the reactions to his visit were an example of the extremism that was plaguing that country and leading to so much bloodshed there.

The uproar shows how far Iraq has moved from the early US goal of creating a democracy that would make peace with Israel and remove a critical force from the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The US Embassy declined comment. "It is an issue for the Iraqi parliament, not the US Mission to Iraq," said spokesman Armand Cucciniello.

"What has happened was a catastrophe for democracy," Al-Alusi told The Associated Press in an interview in his Baghdad home. "Within an hour's time, the parliament became the policeman, the investigator, the judge, the government and the law. It was a sham trial."

Al-Alusi said he went to Israel to seek international support for Iraq as it struggles against terrorism, and insisted that the outcry reflected Iranian meddling in Iraq's internal affairs - an accusation often leveled by Sunnis like himself against Iraq's mostly Shi'ite neighbor.

"Iran is behind Hamas and Hizbullah and many other terrorist organizations. Israelis are suffering like me, like my people. So we need to be together," he said. "Peace will have more of a chance."

Iraq sent troops to three Arab wars against Israel, and fired Scud missiles at it in the 1991 Gulf War. It remains technically at war with the Jewish state. Iraq's once-thriving Jewish community has shriveled to just a few people, most having fled after Israel was established in 1948.

The Israeli - US Attack on Iran

Officials: Israeli jets flying over Iraqi territory in preparation for strike on Iran - Ynet

Sources in Iraq's Defense Ministry say for past month Israel using American bases to conduct overflights as part of rehearsal for possible bombing or Iranian nuclear facilities

Roee Nahmias Published: 07.11.08, 11:54 / Israel News

Israeli fighter jets have been flying over Iraqi territory for over a month in preparation for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sources in the Iraqi Defense Ministry told a local news network Friday, adding that the aircraft have been landing in American bases following the overflights.

Word of Israel's alleged Air Force maneuvers in Iraq has reached Iran. The sources said the US has boosted security in and around the bases used by Israel during the exercises.

According to the Defense Ministry officials, retired Iraqi army officers in the Al Anbar district reported that fighter jets have been regularly entering Iraqi airspace from Jordan and landing at the airport near Haditha.

The sources estimated that should the Israeli jets take off from the American bases it would take them no more than five minutes to reach Iran's nuclear reactor in Bushehr.

American officials said recently that more than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters took part in maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June, apparently a rehearsal for a potential bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.

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The IAF using American airbases in Iraq to prepare for an attack on Iran? For anyone who doubts that the relationship between Israel and the US is strong, this story should put an end to such doubt. Given the combination of a strategic relationship with a common threat, the report appears highly credible. Why would the US allow an IAF attack to originate from bases in Iraq, a country which still is not very fond of Israelis and will be placed in harm's way during an Iranian retaliation to occur unless the need is great and the relationship tight? The clear advantage for Israel in the closer range is sortie time and turn around time taking considerable pressure of the pilots.

The likely results of an Israeli attack on Iran would be a missile strike response on American positions in Iraq along with a medium range missile attack on Israel. How effective the missile defense systems will be in limiting the damage remains an uncertainty. While I am not an expert in missile systems, I would welcome feedback from readers to the question, would US anti-missile systems be capable of launching against Iranian missiles targeted against Israel (presumably over-flying Iraqi airspace? I might speculate yes. And, moving the launch point to Iraq possibly draws fire away from Israel, a calculation most likely responded to by the Iranians this week with their declaration that an Israeli attack will be met with missiles fired at Tel Aviv.

Most telling though, is the strategic calculation that the US and Israel have made. Israel is counting on Iran directing counter attacks against US positions in the region. But what if, Iran only counter-attacks specifically against Israel? Thus, we have the Condi Rice quotes from this week saying the US will defend her allies in the region. Israel is counting upon an Iranian strike on US targets in order to draw the US (with a US wink and nod approval) into the conflict, giving George W. Bush Jr. every opportunity to fire back without appearing to have started shooting first. This sort of attack needs sustained bombing possibly up to a couple of weeks worth, not only to inflict significant damage to the Iranian nuclear (nuklar) program but to knock out Iran's ability to defend her airspace, launch missiles, maintain effective communication, command and control, political targets, etc., and generally keep Iran from sustaining an organized and meaningful counter attack based upon full tactical capacity.

Such a sustained offensive cannot be managed by an IAF with other responsibilities (northern border for instance) and a limitation of aircraft and manpower. It requires the hundreds of combat aircraft and personnel available only to the USAF and USN. The IAF only holds approximately 127 of the most advanced variants of the F-16i and F-15i (pictured below) although there are reportedly approximately 230 older model F-16s available and maybe 65 older variants of F-15 available Global Security - IAF inventory. APRPEH has speculated for some time that the Israeli Navy's submarine launched cruise missile capability may make the difference in the expected attack, taking a lead role in fact. If Iran does counter attack with medium range missiles, don't be surprised if Israel launches Jericho missiles in response. The advantage of the cruise missile strike is that it keeps pilots fresh for when you need them and the missiles are of course highly accurate. They would, however, only be useful as penetration support, IE, knocking out radars, anti-aircraft systems, command and control, etc, where the targets are not hardened or buried.

However, it is the unexpected which, as in all military operations, is scary. Iranian blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing access from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and disrupting the free flow of oil is now a well known expected response from Iran, one for which the US Navy has certainly (we hope) prepared a plan to prevent. At the very least half sinking a couple of oil filled supertankers and igniting them would most certainly cause a huge spike in world wide oil prices and delay enough of a percentage in the total supply of world oil to cause a panic and result in international pressure to condemn Israel and force the US to back off. What else may Iran have planned? Terrorist dooms day cell activated? Hezbollah attack? More northern kidnappings? Unexpected sympathy move by Hamas? Iranian F-14 loaded with bombs on a suicide flight against US targets? What, if any of the Iranian air force will fly against the US and Israeli aircraft is also an unknown.

All such calculations those that can be presumed have certainly been presumed. The question returns to the cost of not acting in the future to the short term cost of acting to stop Iran today. Bush will act. McCain probably would act. Obama, probably not. For this reason, Israel must plan her strike now and execute it before November 4th and at the very latest before the official hand off of the US Presidency at noon (EST), January 20, 2009.

Having just engaged in a very physical world discussion, I would like to end by bringing this around the other way, to the true strength of the Jewish people. It is our prayer and faith which obliges HaShem to remember us in the good times and the bad. It is our eyes and voices lifted up, unified, and directed in prayer and purpose which characterizes the Jewish way. It is HaShem in charge of all events, no less now than in the past and all events have a purpose. Should the events described above take place it is important to focus on the understanding for which we are required to strive, the achdus we are required to build, and the emuna in our Creator we must hold above us, no matter what the results.

It is my concern that in these times of such division amongst the Jewish people that HaShem could judge us for a significant dose of onesh intent on driving us back together and bringing us closer to our mission, not a mission demonstrating military capability but to make this world a dwelling place for Him. If removing the Iranian threat is a function of that mission, Israel will certainly prevail, if not, who knows.

Since I am no navi and I am not in the business of prophecy, such words are mere speculation. It is however, my prayer that the Jewish people rally around our calling, to open our hearts to his Torah and raise our voices in prayer and learning to make this world a dwelling place for HaShem. When we do so, the threats that currently face us will vanish.




Sufa - F-16 on steriods

Ra'am F-15